中国太阳总辐射的多元逐步回归模拟

Solar radiation modeling based on stepwise regression analysis in China

研究采用年日照时数、年均总云量、年均水汽压、维度等常规气象要素及地理要素为解析变量,建立起估算全国范围内太阳年辐射总量的多元逐步回归模拟模型;利用全国730多个地面站1951—2002年间的常规气象观测资料,通过所构建的模型对中国太阳年辐射总量进行模拟分析,模型模拟分辨率为1km×1km,规模为4173×4847格网。模型数值计算结果显示:中国太阳辐射资源最丰富的地区为西藏自治区、青海东北部及甘肃西部边境等,高达6700MJ·m-2·a-1以上(一类地区),总面积约130万km2;最低的为四川盆地、青藏高原南部的雅鲁藏布峡谷地区,低于4200MJ·m-2·a-1(五类地区),总面积约75万km2;中国陆地表面每年接受的总太阳辐射能约为52.4×1018kJ;单位面积上太阳年辐射总量约介于2780—7560MJ·m-2·a-1;分布具有明显的地域性,呈现西北、北部高,东南、东部及东北的部分地区低的特点,模拟值较好拟合实际的太阳年辐射总量。研究所构建模型实现了太阳年辐射总量空间分布的连续模拟,模型在保证足够的模拟精度条件下,提高了运算效率,简化了模拟过程,适于全国尺度下太阳年辐射总量的数值模拟计算。

In this paper, new solar radiation modeling based on stepwise regression analysis are put forward for estimating global solar radiation from common climate variables （such as sunshine duration, cloud cover, vapor pressure） and geographical elements （altitude, latitude）, which simplify the simulation process, improve the operational efficiency under the similar preci- sion. Based on these models and the observation data of common meteorological elements at more than 730 stations in China, the resulting 1km×1km resolution（20226531 grids） solar radiation distribution show that in the whole country, the annual solar radiation energy on the land surface is about 52.4×1018 kJ, and the average annual solar radiation lies between 2780— 7560MJ？m？2？a？1. There are regional distribution characteristics of global solar radiation in China; it declines from northwest to southeast. The highest value （≥6700 MJ？m？2？a？1） areas of solar radiation is in the Tibet Autonomous Region, the northeastern of Qinghai Province and the west border of Gansu Province; their total area is about 1300000km2. The lowest value （≤4200 MJ？m？2？a？1） area of solar radiation is in the Sichuan Basin and the gorge area of the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon in the south of Tibetan Plateau; their total area is about 750000km2.