基于SDA法的能源消费影响关键要素分析

Key Factors Affecting Energy Consumption in China:Based on Structure Decomposition Analysis

基于投入产出结构因数分解法,本文分行业研究了影响中国能源消费的关键要素,将影响能源消费变动的因素分解为能源强度变化、技术系数变化、国内最终消费比例变化、资本形成总额比例变化、出口比例和进口比例变化以及最终需求总量变化等6个指标。研究结果显示,技术系数变化是影响中国能源需求量变动的最主要因素;能源强度变化、出口比例和进口比例变化也是影响能源消费量变动的主要因素。在影响中国能源消费变化的各行业中,电力、蒸气及水的生产和供应业,金属产品制造业等6个行业对中国能源消费具有重要影响。

Based on the input-output structure decomposition analysis（SDA）,this paper studies the key factors affecting energy consumption in China at sector level,and decomposes impact factors of energy consumption into the following six indicators：energy intensity change,technological coefficient change,proportion change of domestic final consumption,proportion change of gross capital formation,share change of export and import and ultimate demand.Results show that technological coefficient change is the most significant factor affecting China＇s energy consumption,and the energy intensity change and the change of international trade structure also contribute much to the change of China＇s energy consumption,and the six sectors that have important impacts on China＇s energy consumption are as follows：electric power,gas,hot water and metal products,etc.