福建省能源消费变化与供需缺口的实证研究

Empirical Study on Changes of Energy Consumption and Supply& Demand Gap in Fujian Province

本文主要结合福建省的社会经济发展情况和产业结构调整情况,分析了福建省能源消费和产业消费状况,并根据福建省的能源供需关系和调入量,基于灰色模型对福建省的能源供需缺口进行了实证研究,以此评价福建省的能源供应安全。研究结果表明,福建省的能源供求矛盾突出,改变传统的能源路径依赖,发展循环经济,走绿色能源道路,是福建省社会经济发展的必然选择。

Acoording to the socio-economic development and industrial restructuring in Fujian,this paper analyzes the situation of energy consumption and industrial consumption.Combining with supplydemand relaitonship and transferred amount of energy in Fujian,and based on the grey model,it empirically studies supplydemand gap of energy in Fujian in order to evaluate the security of energy supply in Fujian.The results show that the contradiction between energy supply and demand in Fujian is obvious. For Fujian province,changing traditional path dependence of energy,and developing circular economy and green energy,are the inevitable choices.