中国水产品生产波动及成因分析

Analyses of Chinese Aquatic Production Fluctuation and Influencing Factors

本文运用HP滤波法和趋势分解法对我国1978～2007年水产品养殖产量的波动周期进行测定和分析。根据测定结果将产量波动划分为6个波动阶段。分析结果认为单产波动较面积波动对产量的波动影响大;外部冲击因素比生产系统内部传导机制对水产品产量波动的影响程度大。

This paper analyzed and measured the cycle of fluctuation of Chinese aquatic production during 1978-2007 with the Linear Trend Method and HP Filte Method. The fluctuation was divided into six stages. The result showed that the fluctuation of per unit area yield had greater impact than that of the fluctuation of aquaculture area on the output of aquatic products and the external factors had the greater impact than that of the internal transmission mechanism of production system.