出口贸易与经济增长:基于我国中部地区的实证分析

Export Trade and Economic Growth: Based on Panel Data in Central China

改革开放以来,我国中部地区经济高速增长的同时也伴随着出口贸易的强劲增长,一直以来,出口贸易促进经济增长的问题已形成了三种观点:有利论、中性论和不利论。本文通过收集与整理我国中部地区经济增长、资本、劳动力、出口贸易等方面的数据,分析我国中部地区及其六省的经济增长、对外贸易的现状与特征,将出口贸易对全要素生产率的促进作用分为出口部门自身相对要素生产率的提高和出口部门对非出口部门的技术外溢两类,建立计量模型,进行PanelData分析,来考察出口贸易如何通过影响全要素生产率来促进我国中部地区经济增长。以出口内生技术进步的增长模型为基础,本文实证结果表明,出口贸易主要通过其自身要素生产率的提高对我国中部地区经济增长产生直接效应,进一步分析发现,人力资本的积累提高了出口部门的技术外溢效应对经济增长的促进作用,最后就有效扩大我国中部地区经济开放、促进中部崛起提出政策建议。

Since China adopted the policy of reform and opening, Central China has experienced a rapid economic growth rate accompanied by persistent export growth. Until recently, three kinds of viewpoints have formed on whether export can promote economic growth ： advantageously, neutrally, disadvantageously. In order to review how export trade enhances economic growth through affecting the total factor productivity （TFP）, we collect the data on economic growth, capital, labor force and export trade, analyze the current characteristic of economic performance and foreign trade in Central China and its six provinces, divide the positive effect on TFP caused by export departments into two parts： export departments＇ own relative factor productivity progress and the technological spillovers from export departments to non-export departments, establish econometric model and carry on Panel Data analysis.Based on export endogenous and technique endogenous model, the empirical results indicate that export trade causes direct positive effect on economic growth of Central China, largely due to the export departments＇ own relative factor productivity progress. Further findings reveal that human capital accumulation can expand the positive effect that technological outflow of export departments have on economic growth.