系统云灰色SCGM(1,1)c模型在作物需水量预测中的应用

Application of SCGM(1,1)c Model in Crops Water Requirement Forecast

作物需水量预报对灌区编制和执行用水计划具有重要作用。以灰色系统理论为基础,建立作物需水量和残差修正序列系统云灰色SCGM(1,1)c模型,通过对模型拟合精度和预报精度的检验,证明满足预报要求,解决了作物需水量数据序列小样本、贫信息的预报问题,为灌区灌溉制度的确定提供了数量指标和理论依据。应用分析表明,该方法用于灌区作物需水预报有效、可行。

The crop water requirement forecast has the important role to the irrigation district establishment and the execution water used plan.Based on Gray system theory,the single gene system cloud gray SCGM（1,1） C model of crop water requirement and the residual modification sequence system is established.Based on the test of the model fitting accuracy and forecast accuracy,studies have shown that the model meet forecast requirements.Crop water requirements prediction problem is solved for data of the small sample and poor information.It provides the quantity index sign and the theories gist for the irrigation scheduling.A case study indicates that this method is efficient and accurate for the prediction of water requirement in irrigation district.