泰国外汇储备增长的理论与实证分析

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Thailand's Foreign-exchange Deposit Growth

从20世纪70年代以来,泰国承接了发达国家移出的产业,从根本上改变了传统工业的生产函数,经济实力逐年增强,制造业出口迅猛发展,在世界贸易中份额上升,从而导致经常项目顺差,引发其外汇储备迅速增长。在今后甚至较长一段时期,泰国外汇储备还将处于高水平并仍将继续增加,这是泰国产业升级换代过程中必经的一个发展阶段,同时也是其他发展中经济体现在或者不久的将来在承接国际产业转移过程中将要发生的现象———某种程度上说,这是一条国际经济规律。

Since the 1970s, Thailand has accepted the industrial transfer from developed countries, which basically change production function of traditional industry, strengthen its economic power and boom its manufacturing export and upgrade its proportion in the global trade so that Thailand＇ s regular item has surplus and foreign-exchange deposit rapidly grows. In a relatively long period, the foreign currency reserve of Thailand will keep its high level and continue to grow, which are the inevitable develop- mental period in the process of industrial upgrading and meanwhile, which are the phenomenon which other developing countries currently or in the future will accept the international industrial transfer. To some extent, this is an international economic law.