用圆形分布法探讨徐州市腹泻症候群发生的时间规律

Analysis on Seasonality of Diarrhea Syndrome in Xuzhou City by Using Circle Distribution

目的应用圆形分布法对徐州市2006～2009年腹泻症候群监测资料进行分析,以便为指导其它医疗机构开展腹泻症候群监测提供科学的依据。方法按月统计腹泻就诊数,用圆形分布法探讨腹泻季节性分布特点。将就诊时间转换为角度,以元旦零时为零度角,确定全年每月月角度,取月中位角并进行三角函数转换,使之线性化。分别计算各月的sinα、cosα与该月就诊人数(f)的乘积。根据平均角α和95%的角正常值范围对就诊的高峰时点和就诊高峰期间作出估计。结果徐州市腹泻症候群就诊具有明显季节性(P<0.01),各年就诊高峰日不全相同(P<0.01)。结论徐州市腹泻症候群就诊存在明显的季节高峰。其就诊高峰日集中在7月份,高峰期多在4～10月份。建议徐州市腹泻病门诊的开诊时间为每年的4～10月。

Objective To analyze the monitoring data of diarrhea syndrome from 2006 to 2009 in Xuzhou city by using the circle distribution,and to provide accurate and scientific basis for the monitoring on the symptoms of diarrhea carried by other medical departments of Xuzhou city.Methods The visiting number of diarrhea sufferers were calculated by months,and the seasonal characteristics of diarrhea syndrome were analyzed by using circle distribution.The visiting time was converted to angle,the zero o’clock of New Year’s Day was as zero degrees,and each month angles in the year were determined refer to this.The median angle of every month was taken to perform the trigonometry conversion and linearization.The sine and cosine value of each month angles were multiplied by the visiting number.The peak time points and periods of visiting were accessed according to the average angle and 95% range of normal values.Results The diarrhea syndrome had obvious seasonality in Xuzhou city（P0.01）.The peak period of visiting of every year was not complete overlapped（P0.01）.Conclusion Diarrhea syndrome morbidity has the obvious seasonality in Xuzhou city,which peak time points concentrated on July,and the high incidence periods were from April to November.The medical department for monitoring the symptoms of diarrhea should be on run from April to November in every year.