基于通径分析的重庆市天然气消费量影响因素分析及预测

The natural gas factors analysis and forecasting in Chongqing based on path coefficient analysis

通过对天然气消费量影响因素的文献综述,筛选主要因素进行通径分析,找出因素间的相互关系及对总消费量的作用程度,并应用多元线性回归方法对比通径分析前后的预测效果,说明了通径分析的在基于相关关系预测法中的有效性,对燃气管网建设、增容决策、天然气需求侧管理提供决策基础。

Through the literature summary of the natural gas consumption influencing factors,this article screens primary factor to make path coefficient analysis,then discovers the reciprocity of the factors and degree of action to the total consumption,and using the multi-dimensional linear regression method contrast the forecast effects before and after the path coefficient analysis,which explained the path coefficient analysis’ validity,which provide the decision making foundation of the fuel gas pipe network construction,the capacity increase decision-making,the natural gas demand side management.