基于突变级数法的矿区地表开采沉陷损害等级预测研究

The Prediction on Damage Grade of Surface Subsidence Induced by Mining Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

矿山开采沉陷是一种作用力集中、危害很大的地质灾害。它受地质条件和采矿条件等因素的影响,属于复杂的非线性力学问题,难以用数学模型描述,这给实际问题的解决带来困难。基于突变理论,研究了突变级数法在矿区地表开采沉陷损害等级预测中的应用。选取了某开采沉陷区的10个点作为样点,通过分析采空区长度、采空区宽度、开采深厚比、煤层厚度和煤层倾角等5个主要影响因素,确定预测指标体系,计算了各学习样本突变级数值。结果表明,该区开采沉陷损害A级与B级的突变级数临界值为0.91,B级与C级的突变级数临界值为0.85。利用检验样本对突变级数法的计算结果进行验证,结果和实测值基本一致,从而证明突变级数法对地表开采沉陷损害等级预测的可行性和实用性。

Mining subsidence is one kind of geological disasters with the concentrated force and great harm.It can be influenced by geological and mining conditions and is a complicated nonlinear dynamic problem and is difficult to be predicted by mathematic models.This paper discussesed the application of catastrophe progression method on predicting the grade of surface subsidence induced by mining.In our study,10 points of some mining area were selected as sample points and predicting index system was determined and the values of catastrophe progression were calculated by analyzing 5 main factors,such as the length and width of the gob,the ratio of depth and thickness of seams mined,the thickness and dip angle of seams.The results show that the critical value of catastrophic progression for the damage of mining subsidence with Grade A and Grade B in this area is 0.91;with Grade B and Grade C,0.85.And,the calculated results with catastrophic progression method were verified with the testing samples and basically in accordance with the measured values.The results prove that the catastrophe progression method is feasible and practicable.