江苏沿海地区对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析及因果检验

对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系一直是一个热点问题。江苏沿海地区由于各种原因发展相对缓慢,对该地区对外贸易与经济发展关系的研究较少,但是随着江苏沿海开发上升为国家战略,这块地区必将成为一个新的热点地区。为弄清楚该地区对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系,本文选取了江苏沿海地区1991～2008年进口、出口和GDP的数据,利用协整和Granger因果关系检验进行了实证分析,研究结果表明三者之间在长期存在着唯一的动态均衡关系,江苏沿海地区的进、出口贸易与经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。进而,在实证分析的基础上分别从进口、出口和贸易体制改革等方面对江苏沿海地区对外贸易的发展提出了相应的发展对策。

The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has been a hot issue.Foreign trade and economic growth developed relatively slow due to varieties of reasons and few people studied the relationship in this region.But with the rise of Jiangsu coastal development strategy for the country,the area will become a new hot spot.In order to find out the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in this region,this paper selected data contain import,export,GDP in Jiangsu coastal areas from 1991 to 2008,and used Co-integration and Granger causality test to carry out an empirical analysis.The result show that there is a unique dynamic equilibrium relationship among the long-term existence and a two-way causality relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Jiangsu coastal areas.Furthermore,based on the empirical analysis,the paper proposed corresponding approaches to develop foreign trade.