中国农业全要素生产率的变化及其影响因素分析——基于1991—2008年Malmquist指数方法

ANALYSIS OF CHANGES OF CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS IMPACT FACTORS——From the 1991—2008 Annual Malmquist Index Approach

本文以分析中国29个省、直辖市和自治区农业全要素生产率变化为基础,对农业全要素生产率增长差异的原因进行了探讨。首先,根据KS和T检验筛选投入产出指标;然后,利用非参数Malmquist指数方法计算出中国农业全要素生产率指数及其构成;最后利用面板两阶段最小二乘法分析了影响农业全要素生产率的诸多因素。研究结果表明,乡村从业人员对农业生产效率值的影响较为明显;技术进步是农业全要素生产率增长的主要原因,区域间农业全要素生产率的差异较大;财政支农的力度和农业在整体经济中的地位会显著影响农业全要素生产率的变动。

This paper analyzes the changes of agricultural total factor productivity（TFP） in China＇s 29 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,and discusses reasons for the differences of TFP growth in agriculture.First,the authors select the input and output indicators according to KS and T tests;and then they calculate TFP index of China＇s agriculture and its components using non-parametric Malmquist index method.Finally,they analyze the factors impacting agricultural TFP with panel two-stage least squares.The results show that：（Ⅰ） the effect that rural practitioners have on the efficiency value of agricultural production is rather obvious;（Ⅱ） technological progress is the main reason for the growth of agricultural TFP;（Ⅲ） the inter-regional difference in agricultural TFP is relatively large;（Ⅳ） both the level of fiscal support for agriculture and the role that agriculture plays in the overall economy have significant impact on the changes of agricultural TFP.