陕西省环境库兹涅茨曲线分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of Shaanxi Provincial Environmental Kuznets Curve

根据陕西省1989-2008年统计年鉴中工业总产值和工业三废、工业二氧化硫以及烟尘排放量的数据,建立陕西省环境库兹涅茨曲线,并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明,陕西省工业固废与工业废水总体上符合传统的倒＂U＂型曲线,但经过转折点后下降趋势不是很明显;而工业废气和工业二氧化硫呈现直线式上升,烟尘排放量最符合典型的＂倒U＂曲线。文章最后对经济和环境的相关指标进行了预测并提出了一些建议。

According to the data of Gross Industrial Output,output of Three Industrial Waste,Industrial Sulfur Dioxide and Smoke Dust in statistical annual of Shaanxi Province from 1989 to 2008,it established environmental Kuznets curve for Shaanxi Province,and analyzed the reason for change.The results indicated that industrial wastes and wastewater in Shaanxi Province were conformed to the tradition converted ＂U＂ curve,but after the turning point the declining trend is not obvious;the industrial waste gas and the industrial sulfur dioxide presented the orthoscopic rise,the smoke dust was conformed to converted ＂U＂ curve exactly.The article finally forecasted the correlated economic and environmental indexes and put forward some proposals.