基于扩散指数的中国柑橘生产预警研究

Early warning of China′s citrus production based on the diffusion index

以1988-2008年的柑橘生产预警指标体系为基础,以基于因子分析确定权重的扩散指数法为编制方法,分别编制了柑橘生产预警的先行、同步、滞后因子的扩散指数序列。结果表明:同步因子扩散指数与柑橘产量增长率的波动周期基本一致,周期长度和波动幅度基本相同,无明显的超前或滞后;先行因子扩散指数有1-2年的先行期,有稳定的先行预警性,较好的预测了柑橘生产的各个转折点;滞后因子有平均2年的滞后期,能反映柑橘生产的相关时滞情况。柑橘生产相关扩散指数的编制能够充分反映我国柑橘生产中存在的各方面的问题,为有关部门在制定柑橘生产政策和计划时提供预警支持,为柑橘生产时的农业投入和其稳定发展提供合理的意见和建议。

Based on the early warning index system of citrus production from 1988 to 2008,and taking the diffusion index method of factor-analysis defining weights as the compiling method,the diffusion index sequences of advance,synchronization,lag factors indexes for the early warning of citrus production are compiled respectively.The results are synchronization factor diffusion index is almost in the same wave with citrus growth rate,the advance index is 1 or 2 years ahead and the lag index is 2 years lag behind.The diffusion index can reflect most information of China′s citrus production,and help us provide early warning of citrus production.In addition,it provides a reasonable suggestion for citrus production in our country.