中国高等教育未来发展规模预测——基于人口结构与GDP的视角

The Future Development Forecast of Chinese Higher Education——Based on the Perspective of Population Structure and GDP

人口结构、GDP是影响我国高等教育未来发展规模的两个重要因素。人口结构中的第二产业人口产业结构比重和第三产业人口产业结构比重对未来我国高等教育毛入学率有着显著影响。通过构建高等教育未来发展规模预测模型可以得出如下结论:我国高等教育适龄人口数在2008年前后达到最大值,此后逐年下降,这将导致高等教育毛入学率有较大幅度增长,预计年增长率在2.5%左右,到2020年前后,高等教育毛入学率将达到50%,我国将初步进入高等教育普及化阶段。

Population structure and GDP are two most important factors which affect the scale of future developmerit of higher education. The population proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry m me employment structure significant affect the future of higher education enrollment rate. By constructing the predict model of higher education, this paper concluded that China＇s higher education school - age population will reach the maximum around 2008, thereafter declining. This lead to higher education gross enrollment rate will have a more substantial increase which the estimated annual growth rate will reach about 2.5%. The higher education enrollment rate will reach about 50% after 2020, and then China will initially entered the stage of popularizing higher education.