环渤海经济圈生态足迹与经济增长关系研究——基于面板数据模型的实证分析

Relation between the ecological footprint and the economic growth of Huan Bohai Sea Economic Region——An empirical analysis based on the panel data model

运用生态足迹理论对环渤海经济圈三省二市从1996年到2007年的人均生态足迹进行了计算,在此基础上建立了面板数据模型,分析了各地区人均生态足迹、能源足迹与人均GDP的关系。结果表明:这期间环渤海经济圈三省二市的生态足迹、能源足迹与经济增长之间存在正向关系,生态足迹、能源足迹对经济增长的影响具有明显的差异性,北京影响最大,其次是天津、辽宁、山东和河北,表明高产出需要高投入;各地区的生态足迹和能源足迹效率也存在差异性,北京效率最高,其次是天津、辽宁、山东和河北,要增加相同数值的GDP,经济发展水平低的地区要占用更多的生态足迹和能源足迹;各地区的人均生态足迹对人均GDP的影响系数偏小,说明要素投入的效率偏小,技术进步的作用较少,各地区能源足迹对人均GDP影响的系数要大于生态足迹,表明高增长要靠高能源投入来带动,要素的使用属于粗放型,三省二市的经济增长方式属于粗放型增长方式,伴随着这种增长方式,资源将变为稀缺的生产要素,成为实现经济可持续增长的制约因素。最后在此基础上提出了环渤海经济圈可持续发展对策。

By applying the ecological footprint theory,we calculated the ecological footprint per capita of Huan Bohai Sea Economic Region from 1996 to 2007 and set up the panel data model and analyzed the relation between ecological footprint,energy footprint per capita and GDP per capita.The results showed：there was the positive relation between the ecological footprint and GDP of three Provinces and two cities during this period.The influence of the ecological footprints to GDP had the evident region difference,so did the energy footprint.It showed high output needs the high input.The efficiency of ecological footprint and the energy footprint also had the evident regional difference.In order to increase the same amount of GDP,the region with lower economy development level must consume more ecological footprint and the energy footprint,but the coefficient that the eco-logical footprints of regions influence GDP is more little,the input factor has the more little efficiency,the technology progress has no distinct effect.The coefficient that the energy footprints of regions influence GDP exceeded the ecological footprints showing the high energy input drives the fast economy growth.The economic growth mode belonged to the extensive way,the resources would become the sparse factor restricting the sustainable development.This text puts forward the countermeasures to the sustainable development of Huan Bohai Sea Economic Region based on that.