神州飞船发射与回收场雷暴活动特征

Characteristics of Thunderstorm Activity at the Launch Site and Recovery Field of Shenzhou Spacecraft

利用内蒙古115个气象站1971-2007年逐日雷暴观测资料和数理统计SAS软件、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法,重点分析了神州飞船发射和回收场雷暴的活动规律.结果表明:发射场和回收场雷暴日数差异明显,发射场属于少雷区而回收场雷暴较多;回收场区域雷暴近37年来年际变化幅度较大,呈减少趋势,倾向率平均为2.07d/10a,20世纪90年代发生了减少性突变;场区雷暴的出现有着明显的季节性变化,主要集中在夏季,分别占全年的85.33%、76.42%;发射场一天当中在16-17时段雷暴活动最为频繁,年均发生2.2次;而回收场14-15时段雷暴活动最为频繁,年均发生14.9次.从小波分析的结果看,两场区雷暴都具有2a、4a的短周期及20a的长周期震荡变化,回收场区域雷暴的短周期振荡变化更复杂.

Based on the observational thunderstorm data of 115 stations in Inner Mongolia from 1971 to 2007,the change law of thunderstorm at the launch site and recovery field of Shenzhou spacecraft was studied by means of mathematical statistics software of SAS and the method of Mann-Kendall test and wavelets.The results show that the regional differences of thunderstorm days are obvious between the launch site and recovery field,the thunderstorm days at the recovery field are more than that at the launch site;The mean annual numbers of thunderstorm days are too many at the recovery field,and interannual thunderstorm variability is obvious,the annual number of thunderstorm days has a decreasing trend,its value of decreasing days is about 2.07d per decade,and the Mann-Kendall test shows that there is an abrupt change in the 1990s.The appearance of thunderstorm days show an obvious monthly and seasonal variation both at the launch site and recovery field,the thunderstorm mainly concentrates on summer,the days of the thunderstorm are 85.33%,76.42% of the whole year from June to August in the two areas;At the launch site,the top values of thunderstorm appeared from 16：00 to 17：00,and it happened 2.2 times each year averagely;but at recovery field,the top values appeared from 14：00 to 15：00,and happened 14.9 times.The results from wavelets analysis show that the variation periods of annual number of thunderstorm days are about the short periods of 2,4 years and the long periods of 20 years at both sites;but at the recovery field,the thunderstorm changes in short-periodic oscillations are more complex.