气候变化对广西干旱灾害的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Drought Disaster in Guangxi

选取广西88个气象站1961～2009年气温、降水量、干旱指数和广西干旱受灾面积等资料,利用线性倾向计算、阶段性分析、相关分析等方法分析了广西气温、降水量和干旱的变化特征以及气候变化对干旱灾害的影响。结果表明,1961～2009年广西年平均气温和各季平均气温均呈上升趋势;年降水量略呈增加趋势,但年际、年代际变化大,各季降水量变化趋势不一致,春、秋季减少,冬、夏季增加。广西干旱指数、干旱受灾面积均呈上升趋势,特别是秋旱更为突出,20世纪80年代以来严重干旱灾害的频率明显增多。降水时间分布更加不均匀,少雨年的频率增多是干旱加重的主要原因,而气候变暖则加剧了干旱的影响。

In term of temperature,precipitation,drought index and drought disaster area from eighty-eight meteorological stations in Guangxi Province during 1961-2009,the variation characteristics of temperature,precipitation and drought and the influence of climate change on drought disaster were analyzed by using linear trend calculation,phased analysis and correlation analysis.The results showed that both annual and each seasonal mean temperature present a rising tendency during 1961-2009;annual precipitation is tending to increase slightly,but its inter-annual and inter-decadal change are great.The changing tendency of each seasonal precipitation is inconsistent：spring and autumn precipitation is decreasing,but winter and summer precipitation is increasing.The drought index and drought disaster area in Guangxi present a rising tendency,especially that of autumn.The frequency of severe drought disaster is increasing significantly since 1980s.The time distribution of precipitation is farther unevenly,the increased frequency of rainless year is the main cause of intensifying drought.The climate warming exacerbates influence of drought.