我国农村居民纯收入差异分析及预测研究

Net Income Difference Analysis and Forecast of Rural Residents in China

根据31省区统计资料得出简要形势分析。以全国农村居民人均纯收入趋势预测为实证算例,结合增长特征、三和法、最小二乘回归等途径优选和识别修正指数曲线与二次抛物线趋势拟合模型,与灰色法作比较,进行了组合预测实证与定性优化分析,以探求我国农村居民人均纯收入空间分布、时序变化差异以及时序演化趋势规律,为经济决策提供参考。

According to the statistics data of 31 provinces over the years,the brief situation analysis was obtained.Taking per capita net income forecast trend of nationwide rural resident as an example,the data evolution discipline was analyzed,modified exponential curve and cubic parabola fitting models was optimized and recognized by means of several approaches such as growth feature,three-sum method,least squares regression,etc.And it was compared with grey method,combined forecast and qualitative optimized analysis were made,so as to explore the space distribution and timing sequence difference of per capita net income of rural residents and provide reference for the economic decision.