人民币汇率与美中贸易逆差的实证分析——基于1994年至2009年数据的协整分析

An Empirical Analysis on RMB′s Exchange Rate and the U.S. Trade Deficit——Based on Cointegration Analysis on 1994 to 2009 Data

通过1994年至2009年的月度数据计量表明,美中贸易逆差和人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系,人民币汇率不是美中贸易逆差的葛朗杰原因。美中贸易逆差的原因是中国发挥了劳动密集型产品的比较优势,而美国在高新技术产品的对华出口管制则限制了其比较优势的发挥。由此,不能仅仅通过人民币的浮动汇率来解决美中贸易逆差问题。美国想缩减贸易逆差,短期里必须逐步解除其在高新技术产品贸易上的对华出口管制政策,长期里必须提高国内私人储蓄率。

Form 1994-2009 monthly data,it is estimated that the U.S.trade deficit and RMB ＇s exchange rate have no long-term stable cointegration relationship.RMB′s exchange rate does not granger cause the U.S.trade deficit.The trade deficit between the U.S and China is due to that China has comparative advantages in labor-intensive products.However the U.S doesn＇t display its comparative advantages in high-tech products because of its export restriction.As a result,we cannot solve America deficit problem automatically only by RMB ＇s floating exchange rate.To reduce the trade deficit the United States should loosen regulation on its high-tech export products to China in the short run,and improve the domestic private saving rate in the long run.