基于环境库兹涅茨曲线分析的广州城市环境发展趋势探讨

Discussion on the Trend of Environmental Change of Guangzhou City Based on EKC Perspective

随着城市化进程的加速和城市问题的凸显,城市可持续发展问题得到越来越多的关注。文中将环境库兹涅茨曲线引入城市生态环境变化预测的研究中,选取广州市1990―2007年的一组环境变量为研究对象,采用SPSS 13.0软件为分析工具,研究环境变量随人均GDP的变化规律,预测环境变量的未来发展走势。研究结果表明:环境库兹涅茨曲线并不代表环境经济发展的必然趋势,它只是对发达国家"先污染,后治理"过程的定量描述而已。经济增长并不会自动改善环境,只有经过"后治理"阶段才会出现环境质量的好转。如果只有"先污染",而没有"后治理",环境质量是不可能出现好转的。环境库兹涅茨曲线的意义在于强调环境政策和环保投入在改善环境质量中的重要作用,从而推进区域的可持续发展。

With the acceleration of urbanization and emergence of urban issues,more and more attention has been paid to the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in today’s society.This article applies the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory into the study of the relationship and prediction of the trend of environmental change in urban areas.With a group of environmental variables collected from1990 to 2007 in Guangzhou as the study subject and SPSS 13.0 for windows as a tool,certain variables bearing good correlations with the per capita GDP are selected to undergo quadratic and cubic curve fittings.It’s found that environmental Kuznets curve is not a representative of the inevitable trend of eco-environment development,but just a quantitative description of the way ＂first pollute the environment and then take counter-measures to control it＂ that many developed countries have experienced.In fact,economic growth will not automatically improve the environment,and only after taking counter-measures the improvement of environmental quality will occur.Environmental Kuznets curve is to emphasize the significance of environmental policy and environmental inputs to improve the quality of the environment,thus to promote regional sustainable development.