预测农业用水量的灰色模型

Grey model for predicting agricultural water demand

按照灰色理论和参数辨识方式,建立了一个预测农业用水量的灰色模型GM（1,1）,运用残差检验与后验差检验两种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型拟合精度达99%。用所建立的模型预测某灌区2004~2008年农业用水量,结果与当地实际情况比较吻合。该灰色模型的通用性好,所需数据少,计算量适中。

According to the grey principle and parameter recognition mode,the grey model GM（1,1） for predicting the agricultural water demand is built.The model precision is examined by residual error and posterior difference,the fitting precision reaches 99%.The model GM（1,1） is applied to predict the water demand of an irrigation district in 2004-2008.The predicting result is considerably coincides with the practical condition and shows that the model GM（1,1） has the advantages of wide versatility,few data necessity and moderate computer time.