基于离散分布的智能停车诱导系统中空余泊位数的预测研究

Study on Spare Spaces Prediction of Parking Guidance and Information System Based on Discrete Distribution

本文根据城市公共停车场泊位占有率在时间上表现出的周期性及其随时间的变化趋势,不考虑其由于受各种随机因素影响所表现出的不确定性,将车辆进出停车场的行为看成可描述事件。利用离散分布模型描述行为进行,建立数学模型,表达经过某段时间后停车场的空余停泊位数。最后通过算例计算验证模型的可行性,可用于停车诱导屏的泊位预测。

According to the periodicity and variation trend of parking space occupancy existing in urban public parking lots, the action of cars＂ entering and exiting from park can be considered as describable one, giving no consideration to uncertainty caused by the impacts of random factors. Discrete distribution function is used to describe this action and a math model is established to describe the spare parking spaces after some time. Finally, an example is given to validate the feasibility of the math model, proved to be feasible and can be widely used to give prediction on the number of spare parking spaces.