全球变暖背景下江淮地区气候变化趋势预估

Multi-model Reliability Ensemble Projection of Climate Change over the Yangtze-Huaihe Region under Global Warming

利用政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)提供的20多个最新一代气候模式的预测结果,分析了中等排放SRESA1B情景下我国江淮地区2011～2100年的气候变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,未来江淮地区年平均气温将不断上升,增温幅度由东南向西北逐渐升高,到21世纪末年平均气温将上升3.3℃;年平均降水量持续增多,降水增幅随纬度的升高以及随时间的推进而加大,且将在2041年后显著增强。

The characteristics of climate change over Yangtze-Huaihe Region under Global Warming projected by the global climate system models participating in the fourth assessment report of IPCC under the SRES A1B scenario during the 21st century were analyzed. The results showed that the air temperature rises gradually by the end of the 21st century,the warming rate increased gradually from southeast to northwest,the air temperature increases by 3.3 ℃. The results also indicated that annual average precipitation will increase,enhancement magnitude is generally larger toward high latitudes and gradually enlarges with time march,and precipitation will be significantly strengthened after 2041.