基于海南省旅游人数的数学建模

Mathematics Modeling for Tourist Data of Hainan Province

使用两种不同的建模方法，研究了海南省2002－2009年的月度旅游人数，并建立了相应的数学模型．方法一利用微分方程结合传统时间序列分解法和自回归分布滞后模型；方法二利用ARIMA（p,d,q）（P,D,Q）^s 模型．通过比较两种不同的方法，最终选出最优预测模型．

by making use of two different modeling methods, research the monthly data of tourists of Hainan Province during 2002-2009, and establish the corresponding mathematical model. We combine differential equations with traditional time-series decomposition as well as autoregressive distributed lag model in the first method; use ARIMA（p,d,q）（P,D,Q）^s in the second method, by comparing the two different methods, the optimal forecasting model is selected.