船用台风路径和强度预报方法

A Method of Forecasting Track and Intensity of Typhoon for Vessels

改进了船用台风短期预报方法并提出了一种中期预报的新方法。前者通过增大样本和扩大海区范围，分别对东海、南海和西北太平洋海区建立６ｈ～７２ｈ的ＣＬＩＰＥＲ路径预报方程。后者通过联合应用逐步回归、相似离度、数据库和最小二乘法来预报台风６ｈ～１４４ｈ的路径和强度。结果表明，改进方法效果明显，可成为船用台风短期路径预报的基本方法；新方法能有效预报台风中期趋势、衰亡时间，还对异常台风有一定预报能力；预报精度较高，且操作简便易行。

An improved method of forecasting a short range track of typhoon and a new method of forecasting a medium range track and intensity of typhoon over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are proposed for vessels. The improved one is a set of CLIPER forecast equations for the East China Sea, South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean derived respectively to predict the 6 h￣72 h track of typhoon on the basis of samples supplemented and water area extended. The new one is to apply jointly the stepwise regression, analog deviation technology, database and the least square procedure to predicting the 6 h￣144 h track and intensity change. The verifications show that the improved one exhibits better performance than previous CLIPER model and becomes a basic method of the short range track prediction for vessels. The new one can be used to predict effectively the medium range track and intensity and the decay process of typhoon, and has certain ability of predicting an abnormal track and tropical depression. Forecast precision of both methods is superior to the present operational level. In addition, performed on computer, both methods involve convenient, prompt, and feasible features, especially qualified for use on board or in the maritime safety supervision divisions.