引力模型、边界效应与中国区域间贸易:基于投入产出数据的实证分析

Gravity Model,Border Effect and Interregional Trade in China:Evidence from Regional Input-output Data

区域间贸易反映了中国内部区域整合和市场一体化的程度。在贸易理论中,一般采用引力模型来分析地区间贸易的模式,并且可以通过估计边界效应来分析各种难以量化的地区间贸易壁垒对区域贸易的影响。本文采取由2002年中国分省投入产出表估计出的省际贸易流量数据,在引力模型的框架下分析中国地区间贸易的结构以及省际边界效应。本文的实证结果显示,引力模型能够较好地刻画中国地区间贸易的模式,同时较大的边界效应也反映了地区间贸易存在较大的本地偏好。另外,本文也估计了中国省际分行业贸易的边界效应。最后的灵敏度检验指出内部贸易距离的设定会在一定程度上影响模型的估计结果。

Inter-regional trade reflects the degree of China＇ s internal market integration. In the theory of trade, gravity equation is generally used to analyze inter-regional trade patterns, and the border effect can be estimated to analyze inter-regional trade barriers, which is difficult to quantify. With inter-provincial trade flow data, which is estimated from the provincial input-output tables of China in 2002, this paper uses gravity model to estimate the provincial trade pattern and the border effect in China. The empirical results show that the gravity model can characterize the Chinese inter-provincial trade; while the large border effect also reflects there is a big home bias in the intra-regional trades. In addition, this paper also estimates China＇ s internal border effect at industry level. Finally, the sensitivity tests point out that the specification of internal trade distance is very important.