中美国际收支关系实证研究:以人民币汇率变动为视角

Empirical Study on Sino-US Relationship in Balance of Payment:Based on Exchange Rate Changes

2005年汇改以来,特别是进入2007年下半年以来,随着次贷危机的蔓延,人民币汇率的升值速度和波动幅度显著增加。本文基于2005年8月到2010年2月的月度数据,运用ADF检验、格兰杰检验,并构建最小二乘回归和误差修正模型,分析人民币实际汇率与国际收支中经常项目和资本项目的关系。实证结果表明:长期来看,人民币实际汇率升值有利于平衡中美经常项目顺差,表现在:人民币实际汇率升值对中国向美国出口有较大负面影响;而对中国从美国进口的拉动作用不大;并且人民币升值不利于平衡中美资本项目顺差,人民币实际汇率升值不仅不会导致美国流入中国FDI的减少,反而能够促进FDI流入的增加。

Since the exchange rate reform from 2005, especially since the second half of 2007, with the spread of the subprime crisis, the appreciation speed and volatility range of RMB exchange rate increase significantly. Based on the monthly data from August 2005 to February 2010, using the ADF test, Granger test, and through establishing the OLS model and VEC model, this paper analyzes the relations between real exchange rate of RMB and the balance of payments which include the current account and capital account. The empirical results show that： in the long run, a favorable balance of RMB real exchange rate has a positive influence on the US current account surplus, and this reflects in that： the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate has greater negative effect on export from China to the US, but has only little pulling effect on China＇ s import from US; the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to balancing the Sino-US capital account surplus, and the RMB real exchange rate appreciation not only cannot lead to reduction in US FDI flowing into China, but can contribute to the increase in FDI inflows.