运用灰色数列模型对某院门诊量进行分析预测

Forecast the on-patient numbers by using the grey series model

目的 预测某院门诊量的变化趋势,为医院领导制定管理措施提供科学依据. 方法 利用GM（1,1）灰色模型对某院近10年门诊人次数进行拟合,并预测近3年的门诊量. 结果 根据某院1999-2008年的门诊人次数建立的灰色预测模型为：（t）=2 787.08e^0.023 28（t-1）-2 727.67 .模型的平均误差率为1.49%,该模型精度为优（C=0.206, P=1.000）,预测效果好. 结论 GM（1,1）灰色模型为拟合和预测医院门诊量的理想模型,预测出该院门诊量呈上升趋势.

Objective To Forecast the changing trend of on-patient numbers in order to provide scientific bases for hospital leaders. Methods The on-patient numbers in recent 10 years have been fitted by using GM （ 1,1 ） model and on-patient numbers in the following 3 years are predicted. Results The grey forecast model established by the on-patient numbers during the year of 1999 to 2008 is as follows ： Y（t）=2 787.08e^0.023 28（t-1）-2 727.67. The average error rate of the model is 1.49% , and its precise rate is perfect. （ C = 0. 206, P = 1. 000）. Conclusion The GM（ 1,1 ） model is the perfect model of fitting and forecasting on-patient numbers, and it predicts that the on-patient numbers ＇of the hospital are on the increase.