资本流入的突然中断与经常账户赤字的有效调节

Sudden Stops of Capital Inflow and Effective Adjustment of Current Account Deficit

本文选择93个国家在1977～2007年的相关数据为样本,分析了全球性经常账户失衡的现状。在深入剖析经常账户高赤字的具体融资途径及其经济影响的基础上,本文利用Probit模型对资本流入突然中断对经常账户赤字调节的影响进行实证检验,发现资本流入突然中断能够显著影响经常账户赤字的调节,并对其经济意义进行阐释。最后就此次金融危机后全球经常账户的状态进行预测,指出此次金融危机的发生不会带来全球经常账户失衡的改善。

In this paper the problem of current account deficit is analyzed.A detailed analysis on its present situation is first given,followed by the deficit′s financing channels and its economic influences.Then the effects of capital inflow′s sudden stop on the adjusting of deficit is explored using the Probit model based on the data of 93 countries from 1977 to 2007.Some important results are found,such as the effectiveness of sudden stop of capital inflow on the deficit adjustment,with the economic significances expatiated.Based on the analysis and observations,the conclusion is given as that the current financial crisis will not make the global current account disequilibrium better as expected.