反向技术溢出、技术进步和我国经济增长——基于面板协整模型的分析

Reverse Technology Spillover,Technological Progress and Economic Growth in China:An Analysis Based on Panel Cointegration Model

本文选取了1990～2007年间中国进口和对中国FDI前十位的国家和地区,扩展了CH模型,建立了包含进口和FDI两个物化型技术溢出指标的面板模型,利用面板单位根和协整技术,得到随机效应模型,分析溢出国对华出口和FDI对溢出国的反向技术溢出效应,结果表明:从溢出国角度看,对外投资比对外贸易更有利于这些国家和地区全要素生产率的提高,因此,溢出国更倾向于对华FDI,我国招商引资政策需要做出调整。

Choosing the first ten countries and areas from which China imported and received FDI during the period from 1990 to 2007,the paper builds up a panel model of two embodied technology spillover indexes that contain import and FDI by extending CH model,and gets a random effect model by using panel unit root and co-integration techniques,in order to analyze whether the export and FDI to China from spillover countries have the reverse technology spillovers for them.The result shows that from the perspective of spillover countries,FDI is more helpful for improving these countries′ TFP than foreign trade.Therefore,it is more likely for the spillover countries to directly invest in China.Meanwhile China should make adjustment for the policies of attracting investment.