基于及时修正策略可靠性增长的动态Bayes评估方法

Dynamic Bayesian Evaluation for Reliability Growth Based on Timely Corrective Strategy

针对指数寿命型设备在及时修正策略下的可靠性增长过程,提出了一种动态Bayes评估方法。该方法建立了及时修正策略下的AMSAA模型,并依据已有研制试验数据,对下一次试验的设备失效率进行预测,并将预测结果作为对新技术状态下设备失效率的验前认识,然后利用最大熵方法给出设备失效率的验前分布,进而实现对产品可靠性增长的Bayes统计分析。最后给出了该方法的具体算例,通过对比分析证明了该方法的有效性。

Aiming at reliability growth process of exponential life equipment based on a timely corrective strategy,a dynamic Bayesian evaluation method is proposed in this paper.The AMSAA model for a timely correction action case is developed and used to predict the of equipment failure rate if next test is carried out according to the existing test data.The prior distribution of equipment failure rate is worked out by applying Maximum Entropy technique to analyze the prediction results as prior knowledge for the new technical state,thus the Bayesian statistical analysis for reliability growth process of a product is also realized.Finally,a numerical example is given and the method is validated by comparison analysis with others.