铁路旅客票价与客流量之间的灵敏度分析

Sensitivity Analysis for the Relationship between Railway Passenger Fare and Passenger Flow Volume

灵敏度分析方法在公路交通领域，尤其在网络设计和运量预测等方面得到广泛应用，并取得显著成果。本文首先提出一个城市间的多模式（包括铁路、公路及民航）均衡配流模型。在此基础上，利用灵敏度分析方法重点分析价格因素对不同运输方式客流量的影响关系。最后通过一简例，说明如何得出不同运输方式条件下。

Sensitivity analysis has been used in the field of highway traffic, especially in design of network and prediction of traffic demand. In this paper, an equilibrium model of multimode network is proposed and its solution algorithm is given. The derivatives of traffic demands of different modes with respect to ticket prices of them are found on the base of the equilibrium model. Finally, a simple numeral example is given to show how the income of railway changes with its price under the competition between different traffic modes (including railway, highway and airline).