中产阶层消费需求结构的宏观数量分析——基于ELES模型

Macro-quantitative Analysis on the Consumer Demanding Structure of the Middle Class——Based on the model of ELES

中产阶层较高的收入和较强的消费能力,以及他们特有的消费文化理念,既引领着消费市场的走向,更影响着供给结构的调整。本文利用2003和2007年中国居民宏观统计数据,运用ELES模型对中产阶层的需求结构进行实证分析。结果显示,中产阶层的基本需求和总体边际消费倾向保持在一个稳定的水平,医疗保健与教育文化娱乐服务的边际消费倾向有所降低,衣着、家庭设备用品及服务、交通通信和居住四类消费品的边际消费倾向均大幅上升;食品、居住占中产阶层消费的主要部分;所有商品皆表现为正常商品;中产阶层的住房的需求结构更多地受供给结构的硬约束。

The higher income and strong spending power and their unique concept of consumer culture of the middle class not only leads the direction of the consumer market,but also affects the supply structure.This paper,According to the macroeconomic statistics data of Chinese residents in 2003 and 2007,takes an empirical analysis on needing structure of the middle class with the help of ELES model.The results showed that the basic needs of the middle class and the overall marginal propensity to consume maintained at a stable level;the marginal propensity to consume of health care and education,cultural and recreational services have been reduced;clothing,household appliances and services,transport and communications and housing four categories of consumer goods have increased substantially.food,housing accounted for the middle class consumption in the main part;the performance of all goods are normal goods;in the middle-class housing demand structure is more affected by the supply structure of the hard constraints.