基于灰色模型的等时段序列对电网的负荷预测

Grid Load Forecasting by Grey Model-based Equal Time Sequence

提出了一种电力系统中长期负荷预测的实用方法,即分等时段序列灰色预测法。将原始序列划分为几个等长的序列段,对每个估计参数作灰色预测,用预测出的估计参数预测电力负荷。利用预测方法预测进贤县2006～2009年的电力负荷,其预测精度在98%以上,残差控制在0.04以内。实例分析结果表明,该方法可作为中长期电力负荷预测的实用工具之一。

A practical method for medium and long-term load forecast in the power system,i.e.,equal time sequence grey forecast method,was proposed.The original series was divided into several equal length series,the grey forecast was made for each estimated parameter,and the forecasted estimated parameters were used to forecast the power load.The method was applied to forecast the power load of Jinxian county in 2006 ～ 2009;its forecasting precision was higher than 98% and the residual was controlled within 0.04.The results of the practical cases showed that this method could serve as one of the practical tools for medium and long-term power load forecast.