中国肉类产品出口波动的实证分析——基于需求、结构与竞争力的三维视角

An Empirical Analysis of Export Fluctuations of China's Meat Products and Influencing Factors

文章运用恒定市场份额模型对1992～2008年中国肉类产品出口贸易的波动效应及影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明,中国肉类产品出口波动的主导力量是不断变化的市场需求。其中,世界对中国肉类产品需求扩大是中国肉类产品增长的主要原因,而肉类产品出口竞争力的下降、出口市场的高度集中和出口结构的不合理是制约中国肉类产品出口增长的基本原因。

This paper adopts the model of Constant Market Share to analyze the effects of export trade fluctuation and the influencing factors for the Chinese meat products during 1992--2008. The research result shows that the changing market demand is the leading force in export fluctuations. The expanding demand of global market is the most important factor for the growth of China＇s meat products. But the decline of meat product export competitiveness, the high concentration of export markets and the unreasonable structure of exports are the basic restrictive reasons of the growth.