2008年柬埔寨大选之后未来政局的几个悬念

Cambodian Parliamentary Election: Uncertain after Certain

2008年7月在柬埔寨第四届国会大选中,人民党以绝对优势取得了预料中的胜利。通过对此次国会大选的背景及结果进行梳理,从经济发展、政治斗争、对手实力及国际形势等方面研究人民党获胜的原因。与大选毫无悬念不同,柬埔寨政局的未来发展存在一定变数,经济增长的维持及转型、人民党统治策略的调适、反对党的分化联合及外交事态的发展将是其中最关键的因素。

During the fourth parliamentary election of Cambodia In July 2008, Cambodian People＇s Party won the expected vic- tory with absolute advantage. This paper firstly sorts out the background and results of this election, then it analyses the reasons of the victory- of Cambodian People＇s Party from the angle of economic development, political rivalry, and the strength of opponents as well as the international situation. According to this paper, unlike the certain results of the election, there are several variables of the future development of Cambodia＇s political situation. Among which the maintenance and transformation of economic growth, the adjustment of the ruling People＇s Party＇s strategy, the dividing or uniting of the onoosition party and the development of diplomatic fairs are the most important factors.