辽宁地区M≥5.0地震前4级地震集中活动的震兆研究

RESEARCH ON THE PRECURSOR ACTIVITIES OF THE CONCENTRATED ML≥4.0 EARTHQUAKES BEFORE M≥5.0 IN LIAONING PROVINCE

本文通过对辽宁地区4次M≥5.0地震和3次典型的ML≥5.0地震前小震活动的统计分析,结果显示,辽宁地区M≥5.0地震前均存在4级地震集中活动的现象,且预期的5级以上地震83%发生在最近1次4级地震后的半年内,震中大部分位于N41°以南,发生在营-海-岫地区的概率超过80%,震级可通过E、T、R三个参量的拟合计算来预测。

Based on the liaoning four M5.0 and three typical ML5.0 earthquakes statistical analysis,this paper showed that there were ML≥4.0 earthquake activity phenomenon of concentration.And 83% of the expected 5.0 earthquakes occurred in 6 months since the last ML ≥4.0 earthquake,the epicenter is located at N41° south,more than 80% occurs in the YingKou-HaiCheng-XiuYan area.Magnitude may through E,T,R three parameters to computations forecast.