中国货币供给量与通货膨胀关系的VAR模型实证分析

Empirical analysis on the relationship between China's money supply and inflation based on VAR model

为应对美国金融危机对中国实体经济造成的冲击,运用VAR模型计量方法对货币供给量与通货膨胀的关系进行了实证分析。分析认为:货币供给量与通货膨胀之间存在显著的长期稳定关系,货币供给量变动是引起通货膨胀的格兰杰原因,并且货币供给量变动对通货膨胀的有效影响时期为9个季度,其影响程度于滞后第5期达到峰值。研究结果揭示了中国的通货膨胀仍然是一种货币现象,货币政策仍具有最终影响价格水平的能力。

In order to ease the impact of the USA financial crisis on China＇s real economy,this paper uses the VAR model to conduct empirical analysis on the relationship between China＇s money supply and inflation.The analysis finds that there is a stability relationship between them,and the change in money supply is the cause for inflation,and its effective impact period on inflation will last for nine quarters.The authors find that China＇s inflation remains a monetary phenomenon,and the money policies have the final influence on the level of prices.