产业关联视角下的政府投资拉动效应研究

Research on the Pull Effect of Government Investment with Industrial Interrelation Analysis

鉴于政府投资可在产业间经关联传导产生辐射拉动效应,本文利用投入产出模型原理,构建了旨在考察政府投资取向和力度对我国经济发展的影响模型。用我国2007年投入产出表和2009年各项统计数据进行了实证分析,计算了政府对各部门增加相同比例投资对GDP增长的贡献,考察了政府在各部门等额投资对增加值及其各构成部分的拉动效果。特别是将国家振兴规划中的十大产业与投入产出表中的相应部门结合,进一步量化十大产业及2009年政府部分新增预算在应对金融危机、促进国民经济发展中的作用。

In view of the fact that government investment transmitting through the industrial chain can generate pull effect, this paper applies the theory of input- output model and establishes a model to measure the impact of the investment＇ s orientation and intensity on China＇s development. This paper does empirical re- search by using the data from 2007 input - output tables of China and statistical yearbook 2009, calculates the contribution to the growth of GDP on the following conditions： the government increased investment to each sector in the same propor- tion or in the same amount. The paper calculates the pull effects to total value added and its component. Applying the data of Top Ten Revitalization Industries in na- tional plan and the corresponding sectors in input- output table, the paper meas- ures the impact of the government investment in these ten industries and some in- creased budget of government in 2009 on the national economy.