全球化背景下我国出口退税政策的经济效应

The Economic Effects of China's Export Tax Rebates:A Research Based on GSIM Model

本文通过将出口退税政策变量纳入全球模拟(GSIM)模型,从产业层面和全球视角对出口退税政策通过价格机制影响有关国家的生产、进出口贸易流量、生产者与消费者福利等经济活动进行理论分析。并基于2007年全球纺织品生产与贸易数据,对我国纺织品出口退税政策的主要经济效应进行了模拟分析。结果表明,提高纺织品出口退税率将使我国纺织品的产出、出口以及行业生产者的福利都有所增加,而纺织品内销量有所减少以及消费者的福利受损。

Based on recently developed global simulation model （GSIM）, this paper analyses how export tax rebates affect the production, export flows and welfare of the related countries at the industry level. Then using the data of textiles production and trade worldwide in 2007, we simulate the trade effects, output effects and welfare effects of China＇s export tax rebates with the modified GSIM model. The results of simulation show that when China＇s textile export tax rebates rise, the output and export flow of China＇ textiles will increase; the welfare of China＇s textile industry producers will increase, but the welfare of China＇s consumers and the total welfare of China will decrease.