中国农村劳动力非农化转移规模估算及其变动过程分析

Dynamics of Nonagricultural Transfer of Rural Labour Force in China

中国农村劳动力的非农化从改革开放以来出现了持续的增长,然而关于劳动力非农化的研究,目前主要局限在农村劳动力异地转移或者劳动力流动方面,同时由于受到数据资料的限制,已有的对劳动力非农化转移历史变化的研究大多都是利用不同时期不同部门的调查数据进行对比和估计,或者从不同来源统计中进行估算和汇总,实际上很难进行历史动态的连续时间序列动态进行分析。本研究从劳动力非农转移的概念入手,利用同一来源的现有统计资料,通过简单计算,得到了中国从改革开放以来劳动力非农转移的长期时间序列数据,并对农村非农转移的规模变化过程,结合一定的历史背景作了全面的分析,得到了一些有意义的结论。

Since the reform and opening to the outside world there has been a rapid and continuing growth of non - agricultural transfer of rural labour force in China. The existing studies on this issue are largely confined to migration or regional transfer of rural labor force. Meantime, because of the limitations of avaJlable data, there are few studJes with tJme -series analysJs. In thJs article, following the definJtion of non -agricultural transfer of rural labour force, estimation is made of the amount and its time - series changes of non - agricultural transfer of rural labor force by using data derJved from common primary statistics through simple calculations, with analysJs of the dynamics of non - agrJcultural transfer of rural labor force in the context of China＇ s economic development and policy changes.