中国化石能源以生物质能源替代的潜力及环境效应研究

Potential of bio-energy substitute fossil energy and environmental effects

基于1953～2007年间的统计数据,根据消耗能值相等的原则,计算了中国化石能源能值消耗量及农作物残余物可替代能值量.结果表明,建国初期,化石能源资产消耗的能值量基本可以用农作物残余物来替代;随着化石能源消耗量的与日俱增,化石能源能值消耗与农作物残余物可补偿能值之间的差距越来越大,2007年,我国农作物残余物可替代能值量仅为化石能源能值消耗量的10.35%.对生物质能替代可减少的环境价值损失估算可知:1990～2007年,由于生物质能替代可以减少因煤炭开采造成的环境治理费用773.91亿元;减少因能源消费而造成的环境污染价值损失11311.76亿元,其中由于减少SO2排放而减少的环境经济损失量占环境污染经济损失量的56.93%,减少NOx和灰分排放分别占环境污染经济损失量的33.13%和9.94%.

Emergy wastage of fossil energy and the emergy that agricultural residues can substitute were calculated based on the statistical data during 1953 to 2007. The emergy of agricultural residues could almost compensate for that of fossil energy consumption in the early China. However,the disparity of emergy between wastage of fossil energy and agricultural residues supply was getting huger along with the society and economic development. The emergy that supplied by agricultural residues only accounted for 10.35% of which that the fossil energy consumption in 2007. It could reduce much environmental value loss if fossil energy were substituted by bio-energy. The reduced environmental governance cost was 773.91×108 yuan because of reducing coal mining and the environmental value loss because of fossil energy consumption was 11311.76×108 yuan from 1990 to 2007. Among them,the environmental value loss because of reducing sulfur dioxide emission was the most,which accounted for 56.93%. The environmental value loss because of reducing nitrogen oxides and ash emission respectively accounted for 33.13% and 9.94%.