基于灰色-正交小波网络固井质量预测方法及应用

The Method and Application of Forecasting Cementing Quality Based on Gray-orthogonal Wavelet Network

分析了固井质量影响因素复杂性和相互关联的特点,提出一种灰色-正交尺度小波网络预测固井质量新方法。该方法以影响固井质量的9项影响因素作为预测模型的输入参数,将固井质量定量化作为模型的输出。对胜利油田某一区块的20口油井固井质量进行评价预测,预测结果与实际检测结果最大相对误差为2.66%。新的预测方法解决了影响因素的关联问题,同时提高了固井质量的预测精度,为油田新井的固井施工参数设计和施工方案调整提供了可靠的理论基础。

The interrelated characteristics and the complexity of cementation quality affecting factors are analyzed,a new method of forecasting cementing quality based on gray-orthogonal wavelet network is set up.The method regards nine factors affecting the cementing quality as the input parameters of the model,and regards quantifying cementation quality as the output parameter of the model.Evaluating and forecasting the cementing quality of one block of 20 wells in Daqing Oilfield.The maximum fractional error between forecasting results and actual results is 2.66%.The associated problem of impacting factors is solved by the new forecasting method,and the prediction accuracy of cementing quality is improved.A reliable theoretical basis of cementing operation parameters design and construction program adjustment for new wells in oil field is provided.