我国公司并购成功率的预测方法探析

Prediction of China’s M&A Success

公司并购成功与否的预测,不仅关系到并购双方以及并购标的物的利益,而且也是众多中小投资者判断投资价值的重要标准,且一次错误的预测往往带来不可计量的经济损失。在剔除了诸多因素变量后,最终选取了对并购成功率起重要作用的3个因素作为自变量,分别用logistic回归模型和前馈神经网络模型来建立两种并购成功率预测模型,对近三年来的2611个并购案例有效样本进行分析,结果表明两种模型在并购成功率预测应用中各有优劣,为未来参与并购的企业以及投资者的预测提供有力的借鉴。

Predicting MA success is of critical importance both for the participants of the deal and investors of the related corporations.Two models for prediction of MA success are developed which are Logistic regression model and Feed forward neutral network model.2 611 valid samples are included in each model.The advantages and disadvantages are discussed for both models and a comparison between them is conducted to facilitate future prediction.