2010年亚运会我国女子100m栏头号种子选手竞争实力的最优组合预测与分析

Prediction and Analysis on Optimum Combination of Competitive Strength of Chinese Women's 100m Hurdling Top-Seeded Player in 2010 Asian Games

运用数据建模、最优组合预测、灰色预测等方法,探讨我国女子100m栏的竞技状态及成绩动态变化趋势,并分析我国2010年亚运会女子100m栏项目上的主要对手的竞争实力,及预测我国头号种子选手孙雅薇在2010年亚运会女子100m栏上的夺冠实力。由此得结论:1)经过整合优化分析,孙雅薇2010年亚运会100m栏成绩时间将低于13.12s,孙雅薇很可能夺得2010年亚运会100m栏项目的冠军。2)依据预测与分析,在备战中应实时了解对手动态,认清差距,训练时应进一步挖掘潜力和提高竞技状态,积累比赛经验,提高成绩的稳定性。3)要充分、合理的利用东道主优势,这对我国选手孙雅薇等在2010年亚运会的高水平发挥具有重要意义。

Through using data modeling, the optimal combination forecasting, grey forecast methods and so on, this paper discusses China＇s competitive strength of the women＇s 100 m hurdling and achievement of dynamic trends, analyzes the main rival strength in 2010 Asian Games and China top-seeded player SUN Ya-wei strength for winning the champion. It concludes that 1） after integration and optimization analy- sis,in the 2010 Asian Games 100 m hurdling match, SUN Ya-wei＇s mark will be lower than 13. 12 sec- onds. SUN Ya-wei is likely to win the 2010 Asian Games 100 m hurdling champioru 2） Based on predic- tion and analysis, in preparation,we should keep an eye on opponent＇s strength change,identify the gaps, further explore the potential,improve the competitive status,accumulate the game experience and enhance the stability of performance. 3） Making fully and reasonably use of the host advantage and it has great significance to Chinese athletes of SUN Ya-wei for high level of performance.