考虑全要素生产率的中国碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors of China’s Carbon Emissions Considering the Total Factor Productivity

随着我国经济的快速增长,由能源消费带来的环境问题日益突出,特别是由碳排放增加引起的温室效应成为国际社会关注的焦点。全球变暖已经触及农业和食品安全、水资源安全和公共卫生安全,对人类的可持续发展带来严峻的挑战。为全面分析中国碳排放的影响因素,本文在已有研究的基础上,考虑全要素生产率增长率的影响,将内生增长理论与碳排放分析相结合,建立中国碳排放影响因素模型,采用最小二乘法,定量分析了各因素对中国碳排放的影响。研究结果显示,促进碳排放增长的影响因素中,经济增长与能源消耗是主要影响因素,国际贸易是次要因素,影响系数分别为0.277、0.408和0.321;在抑制碳排放的影响因素中,科技投入与技术引进为主导因素,非国有经济比重是次要因素,影响系数分别为-5.262、-1.315和-0.172;最终消费率对碳排放的作用呈倒U型,说明越过最高消费水平,消费的增加有助于降低碳排放;而中国的环境规制对碳排放的抑制作用尚未显现;此外",软"技术在抑制碳排放强度的作用力度上强于"硬"技术。最后,根据研究结果,给出相应的政策建议。

With the rapid socio-economic development of China, energy consumption and environmental problems have become increasingly serious, especially the effect induced by increasing carbon emissions which has received much attention worldwide. Global warming shows a great effect on agriculture and food security, water safety, ecological safety, and public health security, leading to great challenges to the sustainable development of the human society. In order to comprehensively examine factors on China’s carbon emissions, the authors integrated the endogenous growth theory into environmental analysis on the basis of the existing research, and developed a model of factors on China’s carbon emissions considering the total factor productivity （TFP） growth. Subsequently, factors associated with China’s carbon emissions were extensively investigated using the ordinary least squares （OLS） method. Results show that amongst all the increasing factors, economic growth and energy consumption play a dominant role, followed by international trade, suggesting influence coefficients of 0.277, 0.408 and 0.321, respectively. Research findings in regard to carbon emissions induced by economic growth vary significantly, whereas findings about carbon emissions from energy consumption are generally the same. The proportion of coal consumption in China accounted for roughly 70% since the year 1953. This implies that the more energy consumed, the more carbon emissions will be released. The finding about international trade is essentially consistent with the results from other domestic research on China’s implicit carbon produced in international trade using the input-output analysis. Science and technology, and technology transfer were found to limit China’s carbon emissions, followed by the non-state economy, showing influence coefficients of -5.262, -1.315 and -0.172, respectively. It is clear that the domestic RD plays the most important role in carbon emissions inhibition. The non-state economy can also contribute to carbon emissions reduction to certain degree. As such, more attention should be paid to self-directed innovation and continually promoting market-oriented reforms in China. The final consumption rate plays an inverted U-shape role, demonstrating that after exceeding the highest consumption level, the increasing final consumption can be helpful to carbon emissions reduction. In addition, attention should be paid to environmental laws and regulations enaction so as to improve carbon emissions. It is also suggested that the ＂Soft＂ technology is of more importance than the ＂hard＂ technology in inhibition of carbon intensity. Finally, policy recommendations are offered on the basis of the findings of the study, i.e., formulating energy development strategies, reinforcing implementation of environmental laws and regulations, guiding enterprises to export clean technology products, strengthening public awareness about climate change, and building an intensive, conservation, and ecologically-oriented low-carbon economy.