基于系统动力学的山西省能源消费可持续发展研究

A Study on the Sustainable Development of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on System Dynamics

能源是国民经济发展的物质基础,现代社会发展对能源消费依赖程度日益提高。能源消费系统作为复杂系统,与经济、人口、环境等外在因素紧密相连,认识和把握能源消费规律及其变化趋势成为提高能源安全的基本前提和必要条件。本文选取能源大省山西作为研究对象。山西省既是能源生产大省,也是能源消费大省,高耗能的产业结构、初级能源为主的品种构成,导致山西的经济发展是以消耗大量的能源为代价的。论文运用系统工程的思想,对山西省能源消费系统及其相关子系统进行分析,构建系统动力学模型,采用5种不同发展模式分别对模型中节能技术、洗煤率、SO2排放系数等关键因子进行调控,实现对2010年-2020年间GDP增长率、单位GDP能耗和SO2排放总量的中长期预测。对比5种发展模式的预测结果及变化趋势,并结合山西省的实际情况,认为模式5能够较好实现能源消费与经济增长协调发展,是相对最优调控方案。该方案给出的政策建议包括:加强现有装备技术改造,进一步关停落后产能,加强资源循环利用,削减污染物前端排放,加快发展太阳能、沼气等新能源等。

Energy is the material basis for national economic development. Development of modern society has shown an increasing dependence on energy consumption. As a complex system, the energy consumption system is closely related to external factors such as economy, population, and environment protection. Therefore, a better understanding of the mechanism of energy consumption and its trend becomes the prerequisite to enhance energy security for a country or a region. In this paper, the authors performed a study on the sustainable development of energy consumption in Shanxi Province, China. Shanxi Province is known for producing, transporting and exporting coal as well as an important base of energy and heavy chemical engineering in China. In the meanwhile, it is also one of the major provinces consuming tremendous energy. Due to the high-energy consumption industrial structure and the primary energy as the major constitutive species, the rapid economic development of Shanxi Province is achieved essentially at the cost of high energy consumption. In this context, the coordination between economic development and social resources environment becomes increasingly weakened. To that end, reducing energy consumption from the source is an extremely urgent need. In this paper, within the framework of system engineering, the causal relationships among various elements in the complex system of energy consumption in Shanxi Province were extensively investigated, with establishing four subsystems subsequently, i.e., energy consumption, economic growth, demographic changes, and environmental protection. Of the four subsystems, the energy consumption system plays a fundamental role in the complex systems, the economic system is the dynamic subsystem, the population system is the development subsystem, and the environment system is the constrained subsystem. On the basis of such conceptual division, a dynamic model of the system （SD） was developed. By using five different development modes, a series of key factors in the model, such as energy-saving technology, coal washing rate, and SO2 emission, were reasonably controlled so as to realize the medium- and long-term forecasting of GDP growth rate, unit GDP energy consumption, and gross emission of SO2 from year 2010 to 2020. Comparing trends in energy consumption among different development modes, and fully accounting for the realistic situation in Shanxi Province, the fifth mode （i.e., consistently making efforts in technology development, sticking to cleaning and environmental conservation and strict control of contaminant emissions） has proved to be the optimal mode to realize the coordinated relationship between economic development and energy consumption. According to the fifth mode, policy recommendations are given as follows： 1） improving the current equipment, 2） closing down a variety of enterprises with outdated production capacity; 3） enhancing reuse and circulation of resources; 4） reducing contaminant emissions, and 5） promoting the development of new energies such as solar energy and marsh gas.