中国生态足迹的多尺度变化及驱动因素分析

A Study on Driving Forces of Per Capital Ecological Footprint at Multiple Timescales in China during the Period 1953-2007

在基于生态足迹模型计算1953年-2007年中国人均生态足迹(Ecological Footprint,EF)数据基础上,采用经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)方法研究发现,1953年-2007年中国人均EF存在明显的4.3a、10.8a两个波动周期和一个递增趋势。选取与中国人均EF变化高度相关的产业结构、能源消费、发电量、居民消费、城市化水平等7个指标,不同时间尺度下的驱动因素逐步回归分析发现,人均GDP、第二产业产值、重工业、原油消费、发电量、居民消费、城市化率7个因素是驱动其不同周期性变化和持续增长的主要因素。稳定经济增长,优化产业机构,降低原油消费,提高天然气、水电及可再生能源消费比重,提高电力利用效率,适当控制城镇化等是中国减少生态足迹、降低人类环境影响的有效措施。

As an environmental impact assessment method,the ecological footprint （EF） model has received increasingly more attention and positive response in the scientific community. There are various EF studies in recent years on long time series of the influence on ecosystem sustainability. The variation in long time EF series is complex as it is determined by a multitude of driving forces such as population,consumption,land use,climate,technology,and management. It would,therefore,be greatly helpful to examine the relationship between EF and its driving forces. The empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method has been applied to nonlinear scientific fields successfully,such as signal processing,image processing,seismology,atmosphere science,and ecological economics. An optimization regress model could be developed with the stepwise regression method. However,little work has been down on the driving forces of long time EF series by combining the EMD with stepwise regression methods. In this work,per capital EF in China during the period 1953-2007 was calculated based on the EF model. Its fluctuant cycles were subsequently decomposed with the EMD method. In addition,driving factors of per capita EF in China were explored at multiple timescales based on the stepwise regression method. Results showed that： 1） over the last 55 years,the obvious fluctuation cycles of per capita EF in China were 4.3 years,10.8 years,showing an consistently increasing trend; 2） an around 4.3-year period of power generation,per capita GDP,crude oil consumption,secondary industry,heavy industry,etc. were generally consistent with per capita EF in China; 3） an around 10.8-year period of urbanization,crude oil consumption,heavy industry,etc. were generally consistent with per capita EF in China; and 4） consistently increasing trends of urbanization,crude oil consumption,etc. were generally consistent with per capita EF in China. The changes in these cycles and consistently increasing trend of EF per capita in China may be driven by economic growth,industry structure,energy consumption,and urbanization. These findings suggest that more emphasis be placed on maintaining proper economic growth,optimizing industrial structure and the composition of total energy consumption,properly controlling town construction in policy-making. Corresponding policy recommendations are given. This study would provide feasible approaches to mitigating human impacts on the environment,providing reference to sustainable development,and enriching the assessment index system of sustainable development based on the EF analysis. In the meantime,it can also provide new means to analyze driving forces of human impacts on the environment and environmental impact assessment.