广西东盟主要旅游客源市场演变特征及预测

On the Characteristics of the Evolution of Guangxi's Tourist Source Market in ASEAN Countries and Future Prospect

根据旅游统计资料,对广西东南亚主要客源国的时空分布集中指数、亲景度、竞争态等进行了分析计算,研究了东南亚主要客源市场的时空动态演变特征,对各主要客源国游客量做出预测模型,并预测了未来三年各国的游客数量,从而为广西各地区制定旅游规划、开展旅游市场营销、发展入境旅游业提供参考。

This paper makes analysis and calculation of the space-time distribution indexes,familiarity degree with scenic destinations,and competitiveness of Guangxi＇s tourist source market in ASEAN countries,summarizes the main features of the dynamic space-time changes of this market,works out a passenger flow prediction model,and predicts the number of tourists from these countries in the next three years. It is hoped that the research findings can serve as a reference for the tourism planning,tourism marketing,and the development of inbound tourism of Guangxi.